ShieldsWeather.com Blog

Never in all the years that I’ve followed the weather, have I fielded so many questions about the recent cold weather.  For years I’ve always subscribed to the philosophy that the weather compensates itself for most anomalies.  Every dry spell is preceded or followed by a rainy period, unusually hot weather follows balances out unusually cold weather, and in the end it all balances out.   Recent changes to our solar system now suggest that this cold trend may signal the onset of something bigger.

Recent stories around the world are beginning to take on a wider meaning than simple sensationalization.  Many glaciers have stopped receding and are now growing; records lows this spring in over half of North America; New Zealand goes straight to winter from summer; snow in Saudi Arabia; and recent snowfalls across Canada on Victoria Day weekend are followed by snow across much of the US during Memorial Day weekend.  On their own these events are freak occurrences, but all at once  makes me wonder if a bigger trend is occurring.   Count me among skeptics when doomsayers like Nostradamus, Mayan Calendars and fire and brimstone Armageddonists come knocking but show me some hard evidence and will sit up and take notice.   In light of recent weather I went looking for evidence of any widespread influences on our climate and what I found made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

The media has covered NOTHING about recent activity surrounding our sun.   Or should I say lack of activity?

Most of us have heard about sunspot activity; where every 11 years, or thereabouts, sunspot activity goes through a cycle of high and low activity.  The last peak was at the turn of the century, about 2000-2001, and that should have lead to a minimum, half way through the 11 year cycle, in 2006.  That drop did occur but the concern is that the expected climb did not occur.  Not only that, it continued to drop!  It is still dropping today, 3 years later, and is now at the lowest level since 1911-1913.  What’s this have to do with our weather?   Lots.

The peaks and valleys of the sunspot activity charts has directly correlated to the rises and falls in seasonal weather patterns.  Recent carbon emissions, in the atmosphere, appears to have played a roll in warming the planet and diminishing the effects of sunspot activity but recent studies show that 50-80% of all sunspot activity has a direct impact on the earth’s climate.  The last two peaks in sunspot activity during the late eighties and the new millennium with warmer than usual weather.  Those cycles have some impact on annual weather trends but the bigger picture shows that those cycles follow a bigger cycle where large global scale climate events can be pinpointed.

The lowest parts of those large scale trends identify some of the most renown weather events in history;  the little ice age early in the 18th century,  the year without of summer in 1817,  and the coldest weather in the last century from 1911-1913.  This is where my concern grows the deepest – we are now entering one of these ‘low’ parts of the larger scale sunspot cycle.  The lowest since 1911-1913!

We have seen NO sunspot activity in the last 7 days, in fact we are on pace to reach the record for the fewest sunspots in a year since 1913.  In the last three years we have had 3 of the top 18 fewest number of sunspots in the last 150 years;  2 of the 5 lowest years in that time period!  The international agency and scientists that research and predict sunspot cycles, who claims 98% accuracy, has even admitted that there forecasts in 2006 where wrong and this month announced that the next peak wouldn’t occur until 2013.  Even then the prediction is for a very mild peak, the lowest in almost 100 years, indicating the large term trend continues, without lower sunspot activity.

The continued shortage of sunspot activity should inevitably result in less energy to warm the globe.  This logically follows to global cooling.  I suspect that this cooling could be offset by carbon emissions but not completely.  If this trend continues then the onset of winters could come sooner, with more snow and colder-longer winters.  During the last period that the sun was this inactive during 1911-1913.

History shows us that during this time it was cold enough to freezing the Niagara River and cause the falls to stop flowing, cold enough to bring icebergs unusually south and sink the Titanic and cold enough to set the records for coldest years in modern meteorological observation.

There will still be hot days to come this summer.  Maybe not as many as we’ve since in the last 10 years but enough to make us forget about the cool weather, for a while.  My fear is that fall will come sooner, as spring has lasted too long and that the coming winter will be even longer and colder.  If nothing else, the recent solar inactivity deserves some attention by the general public and I hope it’s only a coincidence.  But enough recent activities and global trends all seems to make me doubt that this is merely a cold snap.

I have always been guarded about sensational weather reporting (aka weather-porn,) in which modern day media exploits natural disasters for ratings.  I try to only forecast and report the facts and realistic expectations.  Some thought my warnings of possible tornadoes last June were sensational until the Laird tornado hit North Shore Tractor.  I think it’s wrong to exaggerate the facts and spin them into near-truths and so I was very careful in my research for this blog entry.   I searched many sites to get the information and data contained above and to the best of my knowledge, the events are all fact.  The impact of those facts are subject to discussions and I have done my best to represent a plausible outcome.  Jerry Shields

Check out these sites for more on this topic…

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/30sep_blankyear.htm

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html#Period

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_activity