ShieldsWeather.com Blog

Hurricane Ike is bearing down on Texas today and is a HUGE hurricane.  Satellite images show this storm consuming most of the Gulf of Mexico!  Currently a category 2 storm, Ike is expected to reach major hurricane status before making landfall.

I have posted here the last public advisory for Ike.  It is chilling.  Storm surges over 20 feet expected a mile inland.  This could be devasting for the Galveston region…

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE GETS A LITTLE STRONGER...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AN PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 265 MILES...425 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.  A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 89 MPH...144 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
400 FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.  SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

In March I was invited to Toronto to attend the taping of CBC’s Test the Nation TV show.  I was invited to be part of the Weather Forecasting Team.  TV personalities from across Canada were on our team of 36 forecasters.

Canada’s weather trivia guru, David Phillips, can be seen on the left side of the 2nd row.  Claire Martin is far right in the 2nd row and yours truly can be found way up on the top row, on the far right side.

The team captain for the Weathercasters was Mitsou, pop singing star from the 80’s.

It was a fantastic experience to network with fellow weather junkies from across the country and an absolute thrill to sit and have lunch with David Phillips.  The next pic is me with David.

While I can’t reveal any details of the show I can say it was a blast and it was an opportunity of a lifetime.  I’m not sure you’ll be able to see me but I’m hoping for a closeup!! LOL.  As an added perk I was able to get a one on one tour of the CBC weather center at Toronto CBC headquarters.  Nick Czernkovich, of CBC Toronto, was kind enough to show me how they generate their forecasts and get that product to air.  Thanks Nick!

The show airs Sunday night at 8pm, on CBC.  Also watch for the Sault Star article that should appear in this Saturday’s paper.

A quick look at this map shows that there are now 3 Hurricanes lines up to threaten the Eastern USA.  Hanna is expected to glance the Carolinas this weekend.

Ike has already developed into a strong Major Hurricane (Category 3 or greater) and Josephine is starting to take shape.

The path of these storms will influence our weather over the next couple weeks.  Any long range forecasts should be viewed cautiously as these storms can throw modern day forecast models for a loop.

A quick look at the latest projection for Hurricane Gustav is quiet alarming. Enough so for me to make time for the first blog in months.

While Gustav isn’t following Katrina’s path, it does have the potential to become very strong and current projections take it near New Orleans again. Monday night is the forecast time of arrival on the Gulf coast. This storm will have to be watched very closely this weekend - I’m sure we’ll see widespread evacuations if it continues on its current path.

Looks like Gustav made landfall as a Category 3, that quickly weakened to a Category 2.  Houma was the closest town to landfall, just southwest of New Orleans.

Here’s an image from my radar software, of Gustav making landfall.

Summertime activities have slowed down my time for blogging but today I thought I’d mention a cold front passage. This image shows the line of rain and storms ahead of the cold front, about to hit the Sault at 6am.

The cold front will work its way west to east today bringing rain and storms across the region. Regions that see the onset of this activity during the afternoon may see some intense storms.

The storm prediction center suggests that regions east of Iron Bridge have a chance of strong storms bringing some hail and strong winds. People in this region should keep a heads up for threatening weather and tune into public warning sources for the latest weather watches and warnings.

I haven’t blogged much in the last couple days as I’ve been working on improving some forecast details for the long range forecast. I’m also working on a pay-for-use service that will get detailed weather information to those needing that service for their work-place activities or personal scheduling. More on these additions once they come online.

For today I want to talk about Lake-Breeze activity. You often read me comment about the products of lake breeze activity. It could be just clouds, rain or even thundershowers.

This map is from Dr. David Sills, a meteorologist from Environment Canada, that specializes in Lake Breeze activity around the Great Lakes. He has more detailed information at http://www.yorku.ca/pat/research/dsills/primer.html .

Lake breezes around Algoma seem to form mostly on the north shore of the North Channel and sometimes east of Lake Superior. Often the lake-breeze can be seen at work by a thin line of clouds that extends along the North Shore just inland of Highway #17.

Sometimes this line can become intense and spawn a shower or even a thundershower. If conditions are primed for severe weather than a lake breeze can act as the catalyst to fire severe storms.

You can see from the diagram that lake-breezes are due to the uneven heating of the cool spring lakes and the neighbouring landmass. It is important for wide-scale windspeeds to be light, or the lake breeze cannot establish.

I bring this topic up today because we have a real chance of lake-breeze clouds and showers over the next couple days. Upper Michigan is great for lake breeze development as Lake Superior and Lake Michigan combine to create the merging of two lake breezes, which enhances the effects even more.

Watch for showers to fire in Upper Michigan today and Saturday and then they may move into Ontario or we may see our own lake breezes start up along the North Shore.

Time to drift away from the cold, wet weather and dream of warm summer days.   Trust me - it’s not too far away.  It has been a cool damp spring but the latest round of long range forecast models suggest that the Canada Day weekend could be Hot!

By late next week the American south-central will be cooking in +40C weather.  A low pressure system should bring that warm moist air into the Great Lakes by next Friday.

This all means we have a good shot at +30C temperatures and humidity for the holiday weekend.  The map shows the extreme heat in purple and bright oranges in our region will translate into upper 20’s and low 30’s.

So this week, while you’re shivering at the kids soccor/baseball games just think of the hot sticky weather that coming next week.

A low pressure system that brought rain and storms this past weekend will park itself well to our northeast.  This positioning will then allow the low to draw cool arctic air into the upper Great Lakes region for the next several days.  Along with the cool temps will come fall-like northwest winds off of Lake Superior.

This image shows surface temperatures and wind for Tuesday afternoon.  You can see how the cold air is pulled across Superior and into onshore locations.  The greens are temperatures below +10C.  Normal temperatures, for this time of year, are on the border of light yellow and light orange.  Near +21C.

This setup for cool air will move east, towards the end of the week.  Until then it’ll be ‘jacket’ weather and fall-like lake effect showers for those close to Superior.

A cold front pushes into the region on Sunday afternoon. This may trigger some thunderstorms during the peak heating hours. These storms could possibly generate hail with relatively low freezing heights.

The storms will move out Sunday night and bring cold, dry air. By Monday and Tuesday we could see rain and unseasonably cold temperatures.

Current projections suggest we could see high temps at or below +10C for Monday and only slightly higher on Tuesday!! Cold air will be channeled into the region on the backside of the low connected with Sunday’s cold front.

Temps warm up by the end of the week but this damp, cool spring just keeps holding on!

An unseasonably deep low pressure system will move into the region over the next couple days.  The depth of this low compared to exiting high pressure will create an impressive pressure gradient.

Pressure gradients indicate wind speeds.  The closer the isobars (line of equal pressure) are together the stronger the wind blows.

The attached image is the forecast pressure gradient for this afternoon.  You can see the closest isobars are over the Sault region (circled) and the orientation suggests a southeast wind as winds blow counter-clock wise around low pressure.

Peak winds could reach over 50km/h today with sustained to 40km/h expected for this afternoon.