Jerry Shields` Weather Blog

The Most Accurate Forecast is…?

12:05 pm May 14, 2010

The most common inquiry that I receive is “why is your forecast is different than other sources or why is it more accurate” than those same sources.

The simple answer is – BECAUSE I CARE.

No I’m not being a smart-ass. It’s the truth. I live here. I make my livelihood here and I travel around this great region with my family. The weather matters to me as much as it does to all of you.

It may surprise many of you to know that I don’t check other forecast sources. I build my forecast from the weather data and forecast models and customize it based on conditions and experience. Often someone will write in saying that my forecast is different from Environment Canada and I am shocked at the news – as I haven’t looked at their public forecast. Of course I quickly check out the discrepancy and try to understand why it is different.

It isn’t that Environment Canada(EC) or the Weather Network(TWN) doesn’t care about quality. In fact they employ some of the best forecasters in the world but their talents are stretched very thin. My forecasts may be occasionally better then theirs because I can focus my attention to just our small corner of the province. I do my own forecasts 24/7 and I live in the region I forecast – two big advantages in the forecast game.

I could go on at great length about forecast models, my customized software, experience and instincts but really it boils down to the fact that what happens with the weather really matters to me.

My weather site was born from the need to have more detailed, accurate forecasts then were previously available. I wanted to know if rain was coming to fertilize the yard, if lightning will cancel the children’s soccer game, if a snowstorm would risk a trip to the Sault or if I needed to coral the yard furniture before a big windstorm. I was lucky enough to have an educational background in meteorology and the skills to post my weather opinions online. The rest is history.

From time to time I will be wrong (a certain non-fan from Bruce Mines can attest to my errors) and there will be times when my forecast will be bang on. What you will know, with complete certainty, is that you will get the best forecast of my abilities – as my life is impacted just as much as yours, when it come to weather related events.

May Snowfall Has Arrived

7:54 am May 8, 2010

Snow is falling across the region today (May 8th.)

It seems we are getting March weather in May – seems only fair as we had May in March this spring!

Here is a pic of St. Joseph Island this morning at 7:30am….and moderate snow is still falling. You can see the strain on trees as the snow tries to bend the branches earthward.

May Snowstorm Tonight!?

6:41 am May 7, 2010

6:45am Saturday May 8th Update

Snowfall has begun this morning in a slushy mess. I notice that the intensity has been strong enough to accumulate snow on trees and lawns but roads are melting a little better. The snowfall is expected to taper off this morning so much of the falling snow should melt. Warmer temps and strong winds this afternoon should evaporate any fallen snow in the Sault region.

Regions to the east may not be as lucky as they will see an extended period of snow.

The strongest winds will arrive this afternoon and early this evening with gusts over 40km/h.

Posted 10:30pm….

The latest snowfall map is updated. This is a significant move away from heavy snow to the east but maybe a bit more for the Sault region. 5-8cm of snow is now looking likely for the Sault region but much of that may melt on contact – leaving only a light dusting by tomorrow afternoon.

With temps expected near freezing and winds blowing over 30km/h we will see windchills below freezing all day long and slippery road conditions in the morning.

I will continue to update conditions and developments starting by 6:30am tomorrow morning.

Posted at 9:15pm….

I have updated the above map and will do one more update before 10:30pm. Forecast models continue to hold on to the idea of snow arriving before sunrise with several hours of heavy wet snow. Winds to 40km/h are expected to blow during the snow event. All of this could amount to dangerous driving conditions and possible downed trees and power lines.

Posted at 10:30am …

I have updated the map above to reflect the latest forecast model outputs.

Snowfall amounts have slightly lowered due to an expected delay in the arrival of colder temps. Rain is expected to start early this evening and continue to fall as rain until early Saturday morning. By daybreak tomorrow the rain should be falling as snow.

The heaviest amounts are still expected to fall well east of the Sault, with the worst hitting near Sudbury (15cm+)

I will update the map again this evening….

Posted early this morning…
HERE WE GO!

A May snowstorm is on our doorstep and could develop into a high impact event.

Rain starts tonight and then we watch carefully to see if it turns into snow. Those lucky enough to see a quick transition could see over 10cm of snow by tomorrow morning. It is likely that rain could hang on long enough to cut into snowfall totals for the Sault region but locations to the east could get hammered!

Current forecast models show the Sault region experiencing the rain to snow transition between 7pm and 10pm tonight. My hunch is that snow will begin sooner in locations of higher elevation, such as; north of the city, St. Joseph Island Mountain and locations just north of the Highway 17 east corridor.

With plow contracts finished for the season this could become a dangerous situations on the roads. Will MTO have enough time to make arrangements with local contractors to be ready to salt and plow? If not then driving tomorrow will be very difficult to impossible.

Not only will the snow be an issue but winds blowing 30-50km/h will make for lower visibilities and possibly drifting snow by Saturday morning.

The Sault and regions north to Wawa may see the least impact while Sudbury will see the worst of this. Those with travel plans should pay close attention to forecasts and be wary of developing conditions.

I will update the snowfall map and expected forecast again near noon today….

Winds Are Coming

10:17 am April 16, 2010

By noon today we will see a drastic increase in windspeeds as a cold front exits the region.

Winds are expected to blow sustained 30-40km/h this afternoon.

The above chart is a short term forecast model output for the Sault region. It shows windspeeds, with height, until midnight tonight. You read the time from right to left.

What concerns me is the potential for strong wind gusts tonight. You can see that winds at the surface (very bottom edge of the chart) are near 20 knots (~40km/h) but the high winds aloft are the worry. Check of the area inside the white circle, at 5pm to 1am tonight. Between 2-5,000′ there will be a pocket of winds that will blow near 45 knots (~90km/h); the yellow line is the ‘Mixing Layer Level’ which is the height at which the atmosphere mixes down to the surface. It is possible for some of the 45 knot winds aloft to mix down to the surface – resulting in strong gusts.

So sustained surface winds will be 30-40km/h WITH gusts of 30-45knots (~60-90km/h!) These types of gusts will be infrequent but can cause damage to trees which could fall on power lines.

I would be prepared tonight for the possibility of power outages with the danger of falling trees.

Another perk of these strong Northwest winds will be lake effect precip that will drive showers this morning and then flurries this afternoon across the region.

Weather Coverage Weakened for Northern Ontario

9:54 am April 12, 2010

Recently the City of Elliot Lake decided to reduce the number of hours that the local airport would remain open. With the lack of air traffic and high costs of manning the airport it made sense fiscally, but has dealt a blow to local citizens and forecasters like myself. The collateral damage, from this decision, now means no weather reports from the airport during these closures.

Now if you live in Elliot Lake you find out that your local conditions for evenings, weekends and holidays are now coming from Gore Bay Airport – over 55km away. That would be like someone in Toronto getting local weather information from Niagara Falls. Certainly this would be unacceptable to the millions in Southern Ontario but Northerners are expected to settle for less.

For forecasters like myself it becomes very difficult to verify forecasts and adjust forecast model outputs for variances based on realtime information. We all know (and the reason I started this site!) is that weather forecasts, from mainstream sources like Environment Canada and The Weather Network are poor to terrible. For anyone that makes a living based on accurate weather forecasts it becomes a crap-shoot to find the needed information. This elimination of weather data from Elliot Lake only weakens the already sparse network.

The area from Sault Ste. Marie to Sudbury and from the North Shore to Chapleau is over 55,000 square kilometers! 10 times the size of Prince Edward Island and roughly the same size as Nova Scotia. This area now contains ZERO weather reporting stations during the night, holidays and weekends – I guess weather doesn’t exist outside office hours, in these regions. Meanwhile in Prince Edward Island there a SIX weather stations (remember a tenth of the size) and in Nova Scotia there are 26 reporting stations!! 26!!!… and we have ZERO!!

In Nova Scotia they have 23 forecast regions while we have 15. So each forecast region is fine-tuned to about 2,300 sq’km for our Atlantic cousins while our forecast regions are ballooned to 6,600 sq.km!! That would equivalent to the area in Southern Ontario from London to the Michigan border but guess have many forecast regions they have there? SIX! They have 6 detailed forecast regions in Southwestern Ontario to 1 of ours. Therefore the forecasts could be 6 times more accurate since the resolution is so fine. That would explain why Northern Forecasts are SO terrible.

Population demographics suggest that more effort should be put into forecasts for the bulk of the population – but hold on….. This would have to mean that living in Northern Ontario condemns citizens to less government service than those in the south. It seems hardly fair and is downright insulting!

In the last decade Newfoundland fought to get it’s weather forecast office back; after it was outsourced to Nova Scotia. The size of our little chunk of Northern Ontario is the SAME size as Newfoundland – but we don’t have a dedicated forecast office (it’s in Toronto!)

I would think the challenges faced by Toronto region citizens are no greater than those in the north. We also need accurate forecasts to plan safe travels along the highways, we need accurate information for agricultural activities, we need detailed warnings for severe weather. So we should get the SAME service from our government forecasting service.

The sad truth is that the manually weather observations in Elliot Lake will likely not return unless the mines reopen and the airport becomes busier. It is more likely that Environment Canada places an automated station at the airport than the return of staff. This automation only feeds into continued automation of our government weather offices. They days of real forecasters, who know the region they forecast for, has come and gone. It’s already automated – and performing poorly for us folks in the north and it won’t get better with less information to feed into those super-computers.

I try to do my bit, part-time from my basement forecast office, to help provide more accurate forecasts for the north but the elimination of weather reports, from places like Elliot Lake, only make the job tougher. I would rather Environment Canada give the resources to someone like myself that has a genuine interest in accurate, meaningful weather information. If this WAS my full-time gig, Northerns wouldn’t have to settle anymore!

Snow for Sault & Freezing Rain to the East

6:46 am April 8, 2010

The center of this storm passes to our southeast and you can see that Northern Ontario is riding a fine line between snow, rain and freezing rain.

The Sault region is expected to see only snow today but regions east of Iron Bridge are at risk for extended periods of freezing rain today. There is a risk, during the warmest time of today, that regions closer to St. Joseph Island could see a brief period of freezing precip with the snow.

Roads are already slushy and slick and traveling the roads should be done with caution – especially well east of the Sault.

Snowfall amounts around the Sault are expected to be 10-15cm by this evening.

Comment on Status of Warnings…

Environment Canada downgraded the Winter Storm and Heavy Snowfall warnings early this morning because >15cm of snow must fall to meet the warning criteria. This DOES NOT mean the snow will miss our region. In fact Environment Canada still has a Special Weather Statement in place which calls for at least 10cm of snow for the Sault.

Driving conditions will still be slick today as the snow that falls will create slushy, slippery conditions. Even worse conditions can be expected along the Highway #17 corridor along the North Channel as freezing rain falls today.

I think it was overdone for EC to issue a Heavy Snowfall warning in the first place and they likely have it right now by backing off on warning bulletins – but we will still get lots of snow.

April 8 Snowfall Update

10:14 pm April 7, 2010

Forecast models have leveled out and still look pretty certain that 10-15cm of snow will fall in the Sault region on Thursday.

Snowfall should start before sunrise and continue into the night. Bare unfrozen ground cover could lead to slushy conditions to start the day tomorrow but snow is expected to accumulate as the day progresses.

Next update Thursday morning….

Winter Storm looks Even Worse!

4:46 pm April 7, 2010

The latest forecast models are now showing tomorrow’s winter storm may be slightly worse than expected!

It was reported earlier today that we could see 10-15cm of snow. Latest projections now show that 12-15cm could fall in the Sault region. Locations to the east could see 15cm+.

Stay tuned for the latest updates – I should have another snowfall projection near 11pm….

Snow Arrives Tomorrow (Apr.8th/10)

1:59 pm April 7, 2010

The forecast models have hinted and danced around a chance of snow this week for a couple weeks now. And with less than 24 hours to go it seems to be locking in on a significant snow event.

Much of the Sault region will see 5-10cm of snow with more possible for regions east of the city.

A low pressure system will move through the Southern Great Lakes tomorrow and draw moisture into our region. A cold airmass, that is now in place, will allow this moisture to fall as snow. Daytime highs tomorrow are expected to be below freezing – meaning much of the snow may stay. Ground temps are above freezing so we could see some melting but the snow intensity should be heavy enough to accumulate.

Snow should start shortly after sunrise and continue for most of the day. The heaviest snow is expected near noon.

This snow should melt by the weekend as warmer temps are expected return.

Tornado on St. Joseph Isle – heading towards Soo now!

9:48 am April 1, 2010

I took this photo just moments ago as a large F4 Tornado moved onto St. Joseph Island, at Hilton Beach, and is moving northwest just north of Hilton Road.

The unseasonably warm air mass has collided with cool air over the North Channel and spawned this monster tornado. Tornados are common during the spring in ‘tornado alley’ where cold arctic air collides with warm moist air. Our current unseasonable weather has created the same situation along the St. Mary’s River basin.

Tornado sirens are wailing on St. Joseph Island as Maple sugar producers run for their lives. The twister is sucking up sap lines and throwing wet sticky syrup across island properties. Move NOW to protect yourself, livestock and property, before it is too late!

The tornado is expected to be over Richards Landing in the coming hour, then move towards Sault Ste. Marie before noon. Take cover now, head to your basements with your emergency supplies. Be sure to take a calendar with you and check today’s date – as it’s April Fools Day !