For those that frequent St. Joseph Island you may have seen a sign at Kent’s Corner.
Yes it was my birthday yesterday (March 9th) and I have completed four decade’s and start on a 5th as I turn 40.
There’s still a few weather related things I need to do in the years to come, here’s a bucket-list of weather events I need to see/do -
- see tornado in tornado alley
-experience a hurricane hitting the southeast coast of the USA
-live through a blinding blizzard in Canada’s artic
-cross Lake Superior in a freighter during a November gale
-get back to doing more blog posts here!
Enjoy the warm weather and it appears spring is about a month ahead of schedule. I’m sure we’re not quite done with the snow yet.
12:20 pm December 10, 2009
Squalls are now blowing across southeastern Superior and will only get worse over the next 36 hours.
Weak squalls are already blowing snow into regions from Pancake Bay to the Sault and St. Joseph Island/Desbarats area. The coverage and intensity will only get worse later today. Below is a map of 7pm and you can see the intense band expected to hit the Sault dead-on. At the same time squalls will blow north of the city.
The Sault could easily see 20-30cm by midday Friday and locations north of the city could see double that, in the most intense squall lines. Winds are expected to be stable and the squalls will setup, nearly stationary over some locations for 24 hours, starting tonight.
Regions to the east, south of Laird Hill, St.Joseph Island and the western North Channel will see squalls today while regions north of Laird Hill, like Echo Bay, will see more action tomorrow.
Squalls are very unpredictable but intense. So some locations may see little snow while others will get a ton! Winter’s here to stay!
12:42 pm December 9, 2009
I’ve listened long enough to people griping about the storm not having the impact they expected…
This storm has finished the first phase and dumped 10-20cm across the region with drifts over 20cm. That IS warning criteria snowfall and warranted all public warnings. So why was the impact not severe? – read on….
This storm was forecast days ago and arrived as expected. Lots of snow and wind and will soon be followed by squalls. As a result the MTO and municipal services were ready for the storm. Plow trucks were readied, sand and salters were loaded and patrol – personnel were ready to go as soon as the event started.
People has enough warning about the storm that they planned accordingly. They did their errands yesterday or delayed them until later. They readied snowblowers, generators and were ready to respond.
All of this points towards a system that is WORKING EXTREMELY WELL.
The reason there weren’t dozens of cars in the ditch or in collisions was due to the prepardness of all the agencies and public’s preparation for this event. Thanks to the internet, local media and public awareness we were able to deal admirably with a large storm with little impact.
EVERYONE did a great job. Forecasters, Road Crews, and General Public were informed and took action. The system works. This WAS a large storm but we all did our part to protect life and property - a great result for everyone!
So don’t buy into the negativity of those saying it wasn’t a big deal – that attitude causes people to not be prepared next time. Be a part of the population that takes pride in dealing with a storm better than anyone else across the continent!
10:00am UPDATE—- 14 hours until it begins.
More data continues to roll in and the storm is NOT weakening, if anything it has intensified. The Sault still looks on target for 20-35cm, possibly more with winds blowing 50-80km/h during the day Wednesday. Initial snowfall may be a little heavy and not blow around as much as the snow that falls after noon on Wednesday.
Snow is expected to start by midnight and then intensify for the morning hours. There will be a weakening in snowfall amounts late Wednesday but snow will be blowing around with strong winds. Lake effect snow could come right behind the storm and rejuvenate snowfall by early Thursday morning.
Here is the latest snowfall map…
(note: snowfall values below the dotted black line may not occur as rain could be mixed with snow and melt most accumulation.)
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Morning post—
The storm continues to bear down on the region. Latest snowfall projections now say 15-25cm for the Sault, even more to the east of the region with over 30cm possible along the #17 east corridor.
Up until now the strength of this storm has been measured in terms of snowfall amounts but that is becoming a moot point. With sustained winds between 40-50km/h tomorrow and gusts to 70km/h, the snow will be blowing so hard that it’ll drift around and not fall as an even blanket across the region. So expect large drifts on the westward side of obstacles (as the winds will be blowing from the east) and north/south roads will see the worst drifting.
Visibilities will be near zero and travel may come to a crawl, or even standstill, across the regions rural roads. I would not be surprised to see highway closures by late Wednesday as well as power outages due to heavy snow and wind on failing trees.
Here is the latest snowfall map but keep in mind that winds will make measuring of this snow nearly impossible…..
Latest information still points to a BIG storm on Wednesday. NWS in Michigan has upgraded a Winter Storm Watch to a full Winter Storm Warning, stating that 25-45cm of snow is possible for some regions. Current indications for the Sault suggest that 30cm will fall, at least, with winds blowing strong at 45km/h Wednesday afternoon. This will make for blowing snow which will cause low visibility and make travel on regional highways difficult if not impossible.
The storm is expected to start late Tuesday night and the worst will hit Wednesday just before noon.
Here is the latest snowfall estimates…
The latest data on this storm is mind blowing. Tremendous moisture combined with cold temps could provide for one of the largest winter storms in many years.
It is almost certain that all of Northern Ontario will see 20cm of snow. There is a good chance that some locations could see as much as 30cm and even more for the Timmins region!
NWS has issued a winter storm watch running from Tuesday night until Thursday morning. Environment Canada has now issued a weather statement that mentions 20-30cm of snow for the Sault-Algoma District and expect a watch to be issued later today.
The problem will NOT only be snowfall amount but wind. Winds are expected to blow 40-60km per hour and this will cause the snow to drift and drive visibilities to near zero. This will make driving VERY hazardous and I could see a likely situation for widespread road closures. Consideration should be given to emergency supplies needed for a winter storm of this size.
I will continue to update as this monster approaches….here is a map of expected snowfall amounts, as of this mornings information.
————UPDATE—————————–
The latest information still suggests a formidable storm is expected to arrive Wednesday. Snowfall amounts are expected to be between 20-30cm by Thursday morning. Here is the latest snowfall map…..
————-12:35pm UPDATE————————
Other forecast agencies are getting onboard with this storm and snowfall amounts. Some people think this could just be another hyped storm that misses the region but the consensus says not. Here is Accuweather’s forecast for snow amounts. Notice the 30-45cm amounts just east of the city!! WOW!
I know, I know – the storm last week missed to the east and the squalls missed north and east and the Sault is left with little snow. This will not be the case after Wednesday!
A large winter storm is expected to move out of the USA mid-west and swing across the Great Lakes. I have been chatting with Environment Forecasters that think this could be a very large storm. The NWS has already hoisted watches for the western Great Lakes and the forecast models continue to point towards one solution – LOTS of snow for the Sault!
Current projections now are 20-30cm of snow (maybe more) for the Sault region. The snow will start late Tuesday and continue into Wednesday morning. Winds are also expected to gust over 40km/h and this will make for reduced visibility and slippery roads. Travel around Northern Ontario will be VERY difficult Wednesday night and we could see our first widespread road closures of the winter season.
Here’s what Environment Canada had to say this morning….
“…LIKELY BE QUITE A STORMY DAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. STRONG EASTERLIES OF 40 GUSTING TO 60 KM/H WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITES IN MOST PLACES AS THE SNOW ARRIVES AS A WHITE WALL FROM THE SOUTH….. THE NICKEL BELT – ALGOMA CORRIDOR IS A GOOD BET FOR THE WINTER’S FIRST MAJOR WOLLOP.”
Watch for updated statements, watches and warnings as they will be coming fast and furious over the next 72 hours.
Here’s a map of expected snowfall amounts….WOW!
Snow squalls arrive right on time last night and are behaving as expected (what a surprise!) They dumped a little snow around Sault Ste. Marie overnight before migrating north of the city. This morning that are impacting regions north of Batchawana and could stay in that region for the next 36 hours. This brings a possibility for some locations, likely near Montreal River, receiving over 30cm of snow!
Squalls have also arrived on Manitoulin and Highway #17 corridor east of Iron Bridge. These regions will also see an extended period of squalls for the next day and a half. Later today squalls are expected to move a little more west; this will bring regions south of Laird Hill like St. Joseph Island, Desbarats, Bruce Mines and Thessalon into the action with upwards of 20cm of snow by late Saturday.
Be aware that when you are looking at radar that many of the squalls that are away from the radar station are not detected. The radar scan passes over the low-lying squalls and miss the action entirely. The image below shows the radar shot from Montreal River this morning. You can see that the nearby squalls show up nicely but only a hint of the squall action east of Iron Bridge is showing up….
The Sault regions will end up with 2-5cm of snow by the time it ends late Thursday morning. More snow has fallen well to the east. With the synoptic scale snow now ending we now turn our attention to meso-scale events, ie snow squalls.
With temperatures aloft dropping to below -10C we will see the genesis of snow squalls later this evening. It appears that squalls will stay over the upper peninsula. of Michigan, until after midnight. Winds will then turn squalls towards the Sault and we could see several hours of moderate squalls on Friday morning. Squalls will then move north of the city by noon tomorrow and impact the Eastern Superior. The heaviest squalls will hit near Batchawana Bay and Montreal River.
By late Friday night the winds will begin to turn to the southwest. You will then see squalls move into the Wawa region and also the regions south of Laird Hill and east of Desbarats. These locations could see some intense squalls with snowfall rates of 3-5cm per hour. It wouldn’t be out of the question for these regions(Wawa and St. Joseph Island region) to see near 20cm by late Saturday.
Remember squall activity can be very isolated with intense amounts of snow in some locations while nearby locations get very little. Squall activity should come to an end by Saturday morning.
Below is a map showing squall development across the Great Lakes on Saturday morning. The green tinges near Wawa, Mackinac straits and Lake Erie show snow squall rates of 5cm per hour.
The track of the storm seems to have stabilized. Heaviest snow will fall near Kirkland Lake. Sudbury to Elliot Lake could see more than 10cm. The Sault region now looks to see 3-5cm, slightly more east of St. Joseph Island. Lower amounts will fall north of the Sault.
Strong snow squalls are expected in the region starting tomorrow night. Expect squalls to move into the Sault after dark and into Friday/Saturday. There could be an extended period of squalls from Batchawana to Lake Superior Park. Visibilities in this region will likely be reduced and snowfall amounts could make for treacherous driving, maybe even road closures.
Here’s the snowfall amounts expected for Thursday. This does NOT inlcude expected snow squall activity to end the week.
