Snow is falling across the region today (May 8th.)
It seems we are getting March weather in May – seems only fair as we had May in March this spring!
Here is a pic of St. Joseph Island this morning at 7:30am….and moderate snow is still falling. You can see the strain on trees as the snow tries to bend the branches earthward.
6:45am Saturday May 8th Update
Snowfall has begun this morning in a slushy mess. I notice that the intensity has been strong enough to accumulate snow on trees and lawns but roads are melting a little better. The snowfall is expected to taper off this morning so much of the falling snow should melt. Warmer temps and strong winds this afternoon should evaporate any fallen snow in the Sault region.
Regions to the east may not be as lucky as they will see an extended period of snow.
The strongest winds will arrive this afternoon and early this evening with gusts over 40km/h.
The latest snowfall map is updated. This is a significant move away from heavy snow to the east but maybe a bit more for the Sault region. 5-8cm of snow is now looking likely for the Sault region but much of that may melt on contact – leaving only a light dusting by tomorrow afternoon.
With temps expected near freezing and winds blowing over 30km/h we will see windchills below freezing all day long and slippery road conditions in the morning.
I will continue to update conditions and developments starting by 6:30am tomorrow morning.
I have updated the above map and will do one more update before 10:30pm. Forecast models continue to hold on to the idea of snow arriving before sunrise with several hours of heavy wet snow. Winds to 40km/h are expected to blow during the snow event. All of this could amount to dangerous driving conditions and possible downed trees and power lines.
I have updated the map above to reflect the latest forecast model outputs.
Snowfall amounts have slightly lowered due to an expected delay in the arrival of colder temps. Rain is expected to start early this evening and continue to fall as rain until early Saturday morning. By daybreak tomorrow the rain should be falling as snow.
The heaviest amounts are still expected to fall well east of the Sault, with the worst hitting near Sudbury (15cm+)
I will update the map again this evening….
A May snowstorm is on our doorstep and could develop into a high impact event.
Rain starts tonight and then we watch carefully to see if it turns into snow. Those lucky enough to see a quick transition could see over 10cm of snow by tomorrow morning. It is likely that rain could hang on long enough to cut into snowfall totals for the Sault region but locations to the east could get hammered!
Current forecast models show the Sault region experiencing the rain to snow transition between 7pm and 10pm tonight. My hunch is that snow will begin sooner in locations of higher elevation, such as; north of the city, St. Joseph Island Mountain and locations just north of the Highway 17 east corridor.
With plow contracts finished for the season this could become a dangerous situations on the roads. Will MTO have enough time to make arrangements with local contractors to be ready to salt and plow? If not then driving tomorrow will be very difficult to impossible.
Not only will the snow be an issue but winds blowing 30-50km/h will make for lower visibilities and possibly drifting snow by Saturday morning.
The Sault and regions north to Wawa may see the least impact while Sudbury will see the worst of this. Those with travel plans should pay close attention to forecasts and be wary of developing conditions.
I will update the snowfall map and expected forecast again near noon today….
The center of this storm passes to our southeast and you can see that Northern Ontario is riding a fine line between snow, rain and freezing rain.
The Sault region is expected to see only snow today but regions east of Iron Bridge are at risk for extended periods of freezing rain today. There is a risk, during the warmest time of today, that regions closer to St. Joseph Island could see a brief period of freezing precip with the snow.
Roads are already slushy and slick and traveling the roads should be done with caution – especially well east of the Sault.
Snowfall amounts around the Sault are expected to be 10-15cm by this evening.
Environment Canada downgraded the Winter Storm and Heavy Snowfall warnings early this morning because >15cm of snow must fall to meet the warning criteria. This DOES NOT mean the snow will miss our region. In fact Environment Canada still has a Special Weather Statement in place which calls for at least 10cm of snow for the Sault.
Driving conditions will still be slick today as the snow that falls will create slushy, slippery conditions. Even worse conditions can be expected along the Highway #17 corridor along the North Channel as freezing rain falls today.
I think it was overdone for EC to issue a Heavy Snowfall warning in the first place and they likely have it right now by backing off on warning bulletins – but we will still get lots of snow.
Forecast models have leveled out and still look pretty certain that 10-15cm of snow will fall in the Sault region on Thursday.
Snowfall should start before sunrise and continue into the night. Bare unfrozen ground cover could lead to slushy conditions to start the day tomorrow but snow is expected to accumulate as the day progresses.
Next update Thursday morning….
The latest forecast models are now showing tomorrow’s winter storm may be slightly worse than expected!
It was reported earlier today that we could see 10-15cm of snow. Latest projections now show that 12-15cm could fall in the Sault region. Locations to the east could see 15cm+.
Stay tuned for the latest updates – I should have another snowfall projection near 11pm….
The forecast models have hinted and danced around a chance of snow this week for a couple weeks now. And with less than 24 hours to go it seems to be locking in on a significant snow event.
Much of the Sault region will see 5-10cm of snow with more possible for regions east of the city.
A low pressure system will move through the Southern Great Lakes tomorrow and draw moisture into our region. A cold airmass, that is now in place, will allow this moisture to fall as snow. Daytime highs tomorrow are expected to be below freezing – meaning much of the snow may stay. Ground temps are above freezing so we could see some melting but the snow intensity should be heavy enough to accumulate.
Snow should start shortly after sunrise and continue for most of the day. The heaviest snow is expected near noon.
This snow should melt by the weekend as warmer temps are expected return.
The sun sets here on my last day in the Arizona desert.
I am bashed and bruised after my adventures but had a great time.
The temperature fluctuations can be amazing in the desert. From 9am-11am it can go from comfortable to unbearable, climbing 15C in a couple hours. Then a couple hours before sunset it can drop just as fast. That hot sticky weather than lingers into the evenings around the Great Lakes doesn’t occur in Arizona.
So I’ve returned home to find an interesting forecast. The Sault region has been spoiled, in my absence, and has enjoyed one of the best March’s on record. That will soon change.
Temps will be at or slightly above normal for the coming week and then reality hits home in about a week.
Long
range forecast models are pointing towards a storm system entering the region next weekend.
It appears colder air will move in at the end of this week and then the storm arrives late Friday into Saturday. Current projections suggest we could see 10-20cm of snow by the end of the weekend.
Some may remember that March came in like a lamb – it’s starting to look like it’ll go out like a lion; just as the old adage suggests.
All of this could be a mixed blessing as the current lack of snow could act as a factor in increased wildfire risks.
Spring is coming early but we will likely need to deal with a few more blasts of winter before we can break out the yard furniture!
Squalls are now blowing across southeastern Superior and will only get worse over the next 36 hours.
Weak squalls are already blowing snow into regions from Pancake Bay to the Sault and St. Joseph Island/Desbarats area. The coverage and intensity will only get worse later today. Below is a map of 7pm and you can see the intense band expected to hit the Sault dead-on. At the same time squalls will blow north of the city.
The Sault could easily see 20-30cm by midday Friday and locations north of the city could see double that, in the most intense squall lines. Winds are expected to be stable and the squalls will setup, nearly stationary over some locations for 24 hours, starting tonight.
Regions to the east, south of Laird Hill, St.Joseph Island and the western North Channel will see squalls today while regions north of Laird Hill, like Echo Bay, will see more action tomorrow.
Squalls are very unpredictable but intense. So some locations may see little snow while others will get a ton! Winter’s here to stay!
10:00am UPDATE—- 14 hours until it begins.
More data continues to roll in and the storm is NOT weakening, if anything it has intensified. The Sault still looks on target for 20-35cm, possibly more with winds blowing 50-80km/h during the day Wednesday. Initial snowfall may be a little heavy and not blow around as much as the snow that falls after noon on Wednesday.
Snow is expected to start by midnight and then intensify for the morning hours. There will be a weakening in snowfall amounts late Wednesday but snow will be blowing around with strong winds. Lake effect snow could come right behind the storm and rejuvenate snowfall by early Thursday morning.
Here is the latest snowfall map…
(note: snowfall values below the dotted black line may not occur as rain could be mixed with snow and melt most accumulation.)
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Morning post—
The storm continues to bear down on the region. Latest snowfall projections now say 15-25cm for the Sault, even more to the east of the region with over 30cm possible along the #17 east corridor.
Up until now the strength of this storm has been measured in terms of snowfall amounts but that is becoming a moot point. With sustained winds between 40-50km/h tomorrow and gusts to 70km/h, the snow will be blowing so hard that it’ll drift around and not fall as an even blanket across the region. So expect large drifts on the westward side of obstacles (as the winds will be blowing from the east) and north/south roads will see the worst drifting.
Visibilities will be near zero and travel may come to a crawl, or even standstill, across the regions rural roads. I would not be surprised to see highway closures by late Wednesday as well as power outages due to heavy snow and wind on failing trees.
Here is the latest snowfall map but keep in mind that winds will make measuring of this snow nearly impossible…..
Latest information still points to a BIG storm on Wednesday. NWS in Michigan has upgraded a Winter Storm Watch to a full Winter Storm Warning, stating that 25-45cm of snow is possible for some regions. Current indications for the Sault suggest that 30cm will fall, at least, with winds blowing strong at 45km/h Wednesday afternoon. This will make for blowing snow which will cause low visibility and make travel on regional highways difficult if not impossible.
The storm is expected to start late Tuesday night and the worst will hit Wednesday just before noon.
Here is the latest snowfall estimates…
