The most common inquiry that I receive is “why is your forecast is different than other sources or why is it more accurate” than those same sources.
The simple answer is – BECAUSE I CARE.
No I’m not being a smart-ass. It’s the truth. I live here. I make my livelihood here and I travel around this great region with my family. The weather matters to me as much as it does to all of you.
It may surprise many of you to know that I don’t check other forecast sources. I build my forecast from the weather data and forecast models and customize it based on conditions and experience. Often someone will write in saying that my forecast is different from Environment Canada and I am shocked at the news – as I haven’t looked at their public forecast. Of course I quickly check out the discrepancy and try to understand why it is different.
It isn’t that Environment Canada(EC) or the Weather Network(TWN) doesn’t care about quality. In fact they employ some of the best forecasters in the world but their talents are stretched very thin. My forecasts may be occasionally better then theirs because I can focus my attention to just our small corner of the province. I do my own forecasts 24/7 and I live in the region I forecast – two big advantages in the forecast game.
I could go on at great length about forecast models, my customized software, experience and instincts but really it boils down to the fact that what happens with the weather really matters to me.
My weather site was born from the need to have more detailed, accurate forecasts then were previously available. I wanted to know if rain was coming to fertilize the yard, if lightning will cancel the children’s soccer game, if a snowstorm would risk a trip to the Sault or if I needed to coral the yard furniture before a big windstorm. I was lucky enough to have an educational background in meteorology and the skills to post my weather opinions online. The rest is history.
From time to time I will be wrong (a certain non-fan from Bruce Mines can attest to my errors) and there will be times when my forecast will be bang on. What you will know, with complete certainty, is that you will get the best forecast of my abilities – as my life is impacted just as much as yours, when it come to weather related events.
By noon today we will see a drastic increase in windspeeds as a cold front exits the region.
Winds are expected to blow sustained 30-40km/h this afternoon.
The above chart is a short term forecast model output for the Sault region. It shows windspeeds, with height, until midnight tonight. You read the time from right to left.
What concerns me is the potential for strong wind gusts tonight. You can see that winds at the surface (very bottom edge of the chart) are near 20 knots (~40km/h) but the high winds aloft are the worry. Check of the area inside the white circle, at 5pm to 1am tonight. Between 2-5,000′ there will be a pocket of winds that will blow near 45 knots (~90km/h); the yellow line is the ‘Mixing Layer Level’ which is the height at which the atmosphere mixes down to the surface. It is possible for some of the 45 knot winds aloft to mix down to the surface – resulting in strong gusts.
So sustained surface winds will be 30-40km/h WITH gusts of 30-45knots (~60-90km/h!) These types of gusts will be infrequent but can cause damage to trees which could fall on power lines.
I would be prepared tonight for the possibility of power outages with the danger of falling trees.
Another perk of these strong Northwest winds will be lake effect precip that will drive showers this morning and then flurries this afternoon across the region.
12:42 pm December 9, 2009
I’ve listened long enough to people griping about the storm not having the impact they expected…
This storm has finished the first phase and dumped 10-20cm across the region with drifts over 20cm. That IS warning criteria snowfall and warranted all public warnings. So why was the impact not severe? – read on….
This storm was forecast days ago and arrived as expected. Lots of snow and wind and will soon be followed by squalls. As a result the MTO and municipal services were ready for the storm. Plow trucks were readied, sand and salters were loaded and patrol – personnel were ready to go as soon as the event started.
People has enough warning about the storm that they planned accordingly. They did their errands yesterday or delayed them until later. They readied snowblowers, generators and were ready to respond.
All of this points towards a system that is WORKING EXTREMELY WELL.
The reason there weren’t dozens of cars in the ditch or in collisions was due to the prepardness of all the agencies and public’s preparation for this event. Thanks to the internet, local media and public awareness we were able to deal admirably with a large storm with little impact.
EVERYONE did a great job. Forecasters, Road Crews, and General Public were informed and took action. The system works. This WAS a large storm but we all did our part to protect life and property - a great result for everyone!
So don’t buy into the negativity of those saying it wasn’t a big deal – that attitude causes people to not be prepared next time. Be a part of the population that takes pride in dealing with a storm better than anyone else across the continent!