Jerry Shields` Weather Blog

Recently the City of Elliot Lake decided to reduce the number of hours that the local airport would remain open.  With the lack of air traffic and high costs of manning the airport it made sense fiscally, but has dealt a blow to local citizens and forecasters like myself.  The collateral damage, from this decision, now means no weather reports from the airport during these closures.

Now if you live in Elliot Lake you find out that your local conditions for evenings, weekends and holidays are now coming from Gore Bay Airport – over 55km away.  That would be like someone in Toronto getting local weather information from Niagara Falls.  Certainly this would be unacceptable to the millions in Southern Ontario but Northerners are expected to settle for less.

For forecasters like myself it becomes very difficult to verify forecasts and adjust forecast model outputs for variances based on realtime information.  We all know (and the reason I started this site!) is that weather forecasts, from mainstream sources like Environment Canada and The Weather Network are poor to terrible.  For anyone that makes a living based on accurate weather forecasts it becomes a crap-shoot to find the needed information.  This elimination of weather data from Elliot Lake only weakens the already sparse network.

The area from Sault Ste. Marie to Sudbury and from the North Shore to Chapleau is over 55,000 square kilometers!   10 times the size of Prince Edward Island and roughly the same size as Nova Scotia.  This area now contains ZERO weather reporting stations during the night, holidays and weekends – I guess weather doesn’t exist outside office hours, in these regions.  Meanwhile in Prince Edward Island there a SIX weather stations (remember a tenth of the size) and in Nova Scotia there are 26 reporting stations!!  26!!!… and we have ZERO!!

In Nova Scotia they have 23 forecast regions while we have 15.  So each forecast region is fine-tuned to about 2,300 sq’km for our Atlantic cousins while our forecast regions are ballooned to 6,600 sq.km!! That would equivalent to the area in Southern Ontario from London to the Michigan border but guess have many forecast regions they have there?  SIX!  They have 6 detailed forecast regions in Southwestern Ontario to 1 of ours.  Therefore the forecasts could be 6 times more accurate since the resolution is so fine.  That would explain why Northern Forecasts are SO terrible.

Population demographics suggest that more effort should be put into forecasts for the bulk of the population – but hold on…..  This would have to mean that living in Northern Ontario condemns citizens to less government service than those in the south.   It seems hardly fair and is downright insulting!

In the last decade Newfoundland fought to get it’s weather forecast office back; after it was outsourced to Nova Scotia.   The size of our little chunk of Northern Ontario is the SAME size as Newfoundland – but we don’t have a dedicated forecast office (it’s in Toronto!)

I would think the challenges faced by Toronto region citizens are no greater than those in the north.  We also need accurate forecasts to plan safe travels along the highways, we need accurate information for agricultural activities, we need detailed warnings for severe weather.  So we should get the SAME service from our government forecasting service.

The sad truth is that the manually weather observations in Elliot Lake will likely not return unless the mines reopen and the airport becomes busier.  It is more likely that Environment Canada places an automated station at the airport than the return of staff.  This automation only feeds into continued automation of our government weather offices.  They days of real forecasters, who know the region they forecast for, has come and gone.  It’s already automated – and performing poorly for us folks in the north  and it won’t get better with less information to feed into those super-computers.

I try to do my bit, part-time from my basement forecast office, to help provide more accurate forecasts for the north but the elimination of weather reports, from places like Elliot Lake, only make the job tougher.  I would rather Environment Canada give the resources to someone like myself that has a genuine interest in accurate, meaningful weather information.  If this WAS my full-time gig,  Northerns wouldn’t have to settle anymore!

The Wildfire risk, for our region, is even higher than last week despite some drizzle on Sunday morning.

The National Weather Service for Upper Michigan has also joined a host of municipal bans and issued a VERY HIGH FIRE ALERT for today and the rest of this week.

Again we are expected to move into a stretch of unseasonably warm weather with gusty winds.  This combined with already dry conditions will make the risk of wildfires very severe.

The next risk of precip arrives late in the week but a cold front should arrive this weekend and bring more widespread precipiation – along with a risk of lightning.

As of April 1st the Ministry of Natural Resources will begin their seasonal advisories and permit requirements under the Forest Fire Prevention Act.  It’ll be interesting to see how they respond at the end of this week.

Today’s Michigan NWS statement says…

VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS COMBINED WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...A DRY AIRMASS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THE SNOW PACK HAS MELTED.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO
AROUND 25 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY SPELL.
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...WITH GRASSES STILL BROWN AND SNOW GONE IN
MOST AREAS...FIRES WILL START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. BACKYARD
BURNING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS TO YOUR HOME AND PROPERTY...SO PLEASE
REFRAIN FROM BURNING YARD WASTE OR USING YOUR BURNING BARREL.

The lack of snowfall combined with the above normal temps in March have led to some dangerous conditions for wildfires.

Wet fields and lingering snow in the bush usually suppresses the danger of spring grass/bush fires but the early transition to spring has left those areas dry and ready to burn.

The lack of rain (or snow) in March has forced many local municipalities to issue a ban on open burning.  Permits to burn are required after April 1st each year and the bans are  putting an end to the pre-permit burning this spring.

So often we go from snow to wet spring conditions and then to a quick green-up, which allows for a very short period of spring wildfire conditions.  The early spring and lack of rain in the forecast may extend that risk period from a week to possibly a month.

One of my many hats is Deputy Fire Chief for the Hilton Union Fire Department.  I have found that many grass fires often start as a small controlled burn that jumps with wind gusts and gets out of control before the owner can react.  It happens fast.

One can only hope that we do not have a continued dry spring because this could lead to an even more widespread danger of forest fires across Northern Ontario this summer.

So check with your local municipality before burning this spring – as more widespread bans may be issued as dry conditions continue.

We headed out early this morning to hike into the Superstition Mountains, here in Phoenix Arizona, before the heat settled in for the day.

Temps to start the hike were near +20C and were near +30C be this afternoon.

We hiked up into Hieroglyphic Canyon to view the unspoiled petroglyphs at the top of the trail.

We arrived to find the images on rock faces adjacent to a small creek running down from the top of the mountains.

In my constant search for the ‘perfect’ picture I took my camera and hiked up the stream a little further.  The picture to the left is the result.

I began my ascent and lost my footing on the slippery creek bed.

I smashed down on my shoulder.

Slid down the creek a couple dozen feet.

And came to rest in a hip-deep pool of water.

I had shooting pains in my shoulder, which we originally thought was separated, and my nice SLR camera was soaked.  There was some talk of calling in a helicopter to lift me out as we had no first aid supplies.

After a brief rest and a LOT of pain I decided to hike several miles back to the trail head with my arm/should immobilized.  We made it back to the car safely and I resisted the calls from my family to go to the hospital in favour of heading home for pain killers and muscle relaxants.  The pain has subsided with the medication and I don’t believe anything is broken but the arm is pretty well immobilized and sends pulsating pain when moved.

So enjoy the above photo as the price paid to get it was more than I anticipated.  I spent this afternoon drying out my camera and to my surprise it appears to have survived the trauma – much like myself.

Some of you may have noticed that my forecasts have been 3 hours late, compared to normal.   No I’m not sleeping in – but I am touring around Arizona, soaking up some desert heat.

My home base is near Apache Junction, just southeast of Phoenix.

Here you can see a view of the Superstition Mountain and wild desert landscape just a 5 minute walk away from the house.

The weather here has been very inactive but warm.  High temps are ranging from +20C (70F for those here in the USA) up to +28C (86F) by tomorrow.

I’ve seen very few clouds but the radiation cooling overnight in the desert is pretty impressive as temps can drop 2-3 degrees per hour when the sun begins to fall.

Yesterday I took a trip north and drove out of the desert and into a more mountainous location, enroute to the Grand Canyon.

For those that have never visited the Sadona region, you MUST.  Some of the most spectacular scenery I have ever seen.

North of Sadona you climb your way out of a canyon floor on these switch-backs that hang on the edge of the mountains.  We drove into this region in desert-like conditions and by the time we climbed out, just south of Flagstaff, we were surrounded by a foot of snow!

We ended up at the Grand Canyon yesterday afternoon, where temps were near +15C.  While the locals were in snowsuits, I enjoyed the warmth and took in the sights with just a tshirt.

You can see here that I was hanging on for dear life as I just about slipped into the canyon.

Forecasts will be back on time later this week as I return from the desert.  I had hoped to bring the heat back with me – but instead it appears a cooling trend will meet me back in the Sault!

I have heard your concerns and decided to ditch the old 5-day forecast.  That forecast was scripted and pulled information from an external source.  It often contradicted with MY OWN 36-hour and 2-week forecast and confused some of you.

So the time had come to make it BETTER!  And so I took my popular 2-week forecast and placed it on the mainpage.  I added some new spice to the 2-week, in the form of graphics and more details.  Hope you enjoy the upgrades – it should make for more consistency and accuracy in my forecasts!!

For those that frequent St. Joseph Island you may have seen a sign at Kent’s Corner.

Yes it was my birthday yesterday (March 9th) and I have completed four decade’s and start on a 5th as I turn 40.

There’s still a few weather related things I need to do in the years to come, here’s a bucket-list of weather events I need to see/do -

- see tornado in tornado alley

-experience a hurricane hitting the southeast coast of the USA

-live through a blinding blizzard in Canada’s artic

-cross Lake Superior in a freighter during a November gale

-get back to doing more blog posts here!

Enjoy the warm weather and it appears spring is about a month ahead of schedule.  I’m sure we’re not quite done with the snow yet.