Hurricane Florence Compared to Hurricane Hazel – Impact on Ontario

Hurricane Florence is forecast to make landfall near the North and South Carolina border as a major hurricane. Many people in Ontario still remember Hurricane Hazel that came ashore in a similar location back in October of 1954 and some are wondering if there is a similar risk to Ontario.

There have been four hurricanes in the last 100 years that hit the Carolina coast and made their way inland to Ontario.  Hazel in 1954, Connie in 1955, Hugo in 1989 and Fran in 1996.  Interesting to note that all these hurricanes were Category 3 or 4; much like the predicted strength of Florence tomorrow.

Impacts from these four previous hurricanes have varied in Southern Ontario from Fran’s weak winds and 65mm of rain to Hazel that caused 81 deaths and washed out part of Toronto with over 200mm of rain.  What will be in the impact from Florence?

Current indications are that Florence will stall out near the Carolina’s and cause historic rainfall amounts a subsequent flooding.  At some point this weekend Florence is expected to slowly move north and then get caught in the upper air flowing and move northeast, remaining south of the Great Lakes.  So a bit of rain is possible for Southern Ontario next week with no high-impact weather anticipated.

I put together a comparison of Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Hazel;