First Day of Snow and When it Will Stay

Over the years my pattern matching approach to long range forecasting has served me very well.  It has successfully predicted colder than normal winters, late summers, unusual weather events and more.

So today I decided to sit down and go through the climate records of Sault Ste. Marie and Toronto to see if I can interpolate my best matching years to what happened back then for first snowfalls of the year and when the snow came to stay.

This year we see a building La Nina and this will certainly start our winter out with some cold and snowy weather.  When I look back to pattern match the ENSO conditions with the Atlantic and Pacific water temperatures I get some really good matches for 1960, 1995, 2007 and 1952.

When I peak back into history hears what I find out that we can use for the start of this winter season:

Sault Ste. Marie

First Snowfall – It appears that the risk for the first snowfall (trace or more) of the season will be somewhere between Oct.16-28.  The best date I can find to narrow things down is around Oct.23.

Snow That Stays – This one is a little more tricky since the 1995 start of winter was infamous for the Sault region.  Snow was measured in feet and part of the Station Mall collapsed in December.  When I work the numbers it appears that snow could fall and stay anywhere between Nov.7-Dec.6.  That’s a wide range but Nov.27th seems to be a good average with a couple good matches as my exact date that snow will stay.

Toronto

First Snowfall – It appears that the risk for the first snowfall (trace or more) of the season will be somewhere between Oct.23-Nov.8.  The average date in that range for the best matching years appears to be Nov.1st.

Snow That Stays – Another wide range for this one and it appears that snow could fall and stay anywhere between Nov.30-Dec.20.  Dec.8th looks to be the most likely exact date I can find that keeps snow through winter.  Even inside that range it appears that a white Christmas may be in the cards for much of Ontario this year.

Watch for more discussions on seasonal forecast, extreme weather and maybe soon I will get around to reviewing some of the endless weather apps that you can get for your smartphones.