Hurricane? Or Not.

The ECMWF weather forecast model has ruled supreme for over a decade now. Its ability to forecast the weather out beyond a few weeks is uncanny and it now sets the standard for all other weather models to achieve. Meteorologists have come to trust this weather guidance above all others – especially with the development and track of hurricanes.

This week we will see just how good the ECMWF is. Just about every other forecast model and NOAA’s National Hurricane Center(NHC) are predicting a hurricane to move into the eastern Caribbean later this week – but not the ECMWF. The Australian Weather Model (ACC) shows a certain hurricane moving towards the Virgin Islands by Thursday morning while the ever-trustworthy ECMWF shows a weak disturbance near Jamaica. It seems the NHC is all in with the other forecast models and disregarding the ECMWF as their forecast (above) shows a 90% chance of this storm developing this week.

The two maps above show two drastically scenarios just 72-hours away, and for people in the outer islands of the Caribbean, these two scenarios mean two totally different outcomes. Here are the other major forecast models for North America to consider. They are somewhere in the middle. The Canadian Global model suggests the development of this storm into the Bahamas and then up the east coast of North American and possibly into the Canadian Maritimes next week.

The week ahead should be interesting and much like a sporting event for meteorologists – who will win? Will the ECMWF come from behind and beat the NHC or will the ACC hold on for a big win? The difference here is that the only winners and losers are those in harm’s way along the eastern Caribbean. So we will all cheer for the ECMWF to keep everyone out of harm’s way.