Ontario’s March 2018 Outlook – The Deep Freeze if Over (for most)

We are halfway through February and the colder than normal conditions forecasted here at ShieldsWeather (see here) most of the province have played out as expected. It’s now time to look forward to next month to see if the cold will last or we make our way towards a warmer start to spring.

There is quite a divide amongst the mainstream dynamic long-range forecast models for March. Of the three mainstream models one suggests a colder than normal March, one says warmer than normal and the other has the province divided in half.

Here at ShieldsWeather, our best matching anomalies suggest a mixed bag across Ontario for the upcoming month.  Our top matching year was 1961 but there were some similarities to 1981, 1996, 2006 and 2004. The result is a slightly cooler March for Southern Ontario and the Far North with mostly seasonal temperatures in between.  The Fort Frances region along the Minnesota border shows the only warmer than normal anomaly which is interesting because this area has very little snow right now.  This could mean an early melt for that location.  All of this considered created our forecast temperature variations shown below.

To date, February has been marked as drier than normal for most of the province.  The exception may be the snowbelts downwind of Lakes Superior and Huron.  The most precipitation has remained just south of the Great Lakes with several snow events just catching Southern Ontario.  Our forecast shows that drier than normal conditions may develop for Southern Ontario with the storm track shift further north to impact more of the Far North.  Much of Northern Ontario can expect the usual amount of snow/rain mix that is typical for March.

Watch for our Spring Outlook to be issued next week!